The best thing about teaching probability and statistics, in my opinion, is that it's so much easier (and fun!) to find interesting contexts for problems. I feel like I don't have a good sense of what data is actually interesting to kids, but this question seems like it would capture some imaginations:
http://freakonomics.com/2014/02/05/what-are-the-odds-of-twins-born-in-different-years/
This also feels like a Fermi problem in some ways.
Rather than having kids actually answer this question, I think it would be more interesting for them to try to make sense of the methodology described in the post, the comments, etc. Analyzing someone else's process is a big part of evaluating is reasonableness. Oh, hey SMP #3...
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